Data release · Updated August 31, 2026

205 of 354 NPS reporting codes had a higher shoulder-month share

Of those 205 codes, 135 also recorded more average annual visits during April, May, September, and October. Yellowstone's four-month share reached 38.5%.

Independent · National Sites Guide Last updated By Nicholas Major
57.9%
The percentage of included NPS visitor-statistics reporting codes with a higher April, May, September, and October share. The count is 205 of 354. Each code is weighted equally.

Of 354 included NPS visitor-statistics reporting codes, 205 (57.9%) recorded a higher April, May, September, and October share between the 2012 to 2015 baseline and 2022 to 2025. 154 (43.5%) rose by more than one percentage point. Share is not the same as visit count. 135 of the 205 also recorded more average annual visits during those four months. Yellowstone's four-month share rose from 30.9% to 38.5%. Its June through August share moved from 66.1% to 57.4%.

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205 of 354
Included reporting codes with a higher four-month share. The median change was +0.56 percentage points. The middle half ranged from -1.49 to +2.68 points.
The data

Shoulder and peak shares at 15 selected reporting units

These examples were selected to show different results, places, and access-policy contexts. They are not a representative sample or a ranking. The downloadable summary CSV contains all 354 reporting codes. "Shoulder" is this study's shorthand for April, May, September, and October. "Peak" means June, July, and August.

Shoulder and peak shares at 15 selected reporting units. These examples were selected to show different results, places, and access-policy contexts. They are not a representative sample or a ranking. The downloadable summary CSV contains all 354 reporting codes. "Shoulder" is this study's shorthand for April, May, September, and October. "Peak" means June, July, and August.
Reporting unitShoulder 2012 to 2015Shoulder 2022 to 2025Δ shoulder (pp)Δ peak (pp)Access policy in reviewed set?Avg annual visits, 2022 to 2025
Glacier Bay National Park & PreserveAK · Cruise schedules strongly influence monthly visitation 27.9%39.5%+11.6−11.6No681,436
Yellowstone National ParkID / MT / WY · National Park 30.9%38.5%+7.6−8.7No4,324,741
Badlands National ParkSD · National Park 25.7%32.5%+6.8−6.5No1,071,704
Glacier National ParkMT · National Park 24.7%31.3%+6.5−6.9Yes (2021)3,046,846
Grand Teton National ParkWY · National Park 28.5%34.3%+5.8−6.4No3,413,050
Acadia National ParkME · National Park 35.8%41.4%+5.6−5.4Yes (2020)3,972,782
Mesa Verde National ParkCO · National Park 34.7%40.0%+5.4−6.6No487,045
Olympic National ParkWA · National Park 31.1%36.3%+5.3−10.6No3,170,482
Bryce Canyon National ParkUT · National Park 42.1%47.4%+5.3−7.6No2,320,343
Rocky Mountain National ParkCO · National Park 31.1%35.9%+4.8−7.5Yes (2020)4,185,510
Mammoth Cave National ParkKY · National Park 33.7%36.3%+2.7−10.4No681,343
Mount Rainier National ParkWA · National Park 27.7%29.4%+1.7+3.8Yes (2024)1,638,009
Great Smoky Mountains National ParkTN / NC · TRV includes substantial through-traffic 38.3%39.7%+1.4−5.6No12,488,763
Arches National ParkUT · National Park 43.7%43.5%−0.3−7.9Yes (2022)1,480,241
Shenandoah National ParkVA · National Park 47.9%47.5%−0.4−5.2No1,606,918
Chart 1

Shoulder share at 15 selected reporting units

Horizontal grouped bar chart comparing April, May, September, and October share in 2012 to 2015 and 2022 to 2025 at 15 selected NPS reporting units. The older period uses gray hatched bars and the newer period uses solid blue bars. Glacier Bay and Yellowstone show the largest gains in this selected set. Arches and Shenandoah declined slightly.
Source: National Sites Guide analysis of NPS Visitor Use Statistics 2025 · Chart: CC BY 4.0 Download PNG ↓
The full distribution

The full distribution includes gains and declines

Histogram of four-month share change for 354 NPS reporting codes. 205 recorded a higher share and 149 recorded a lower share. The median change is +0.56 percentage points.
Source: National Sites Guide analysis of NPS Visitor Use Statistics 2025 · Chart: CC BY 4.0 Download PNG ↓
Sensitivity checks

The result changes with the window and month definition

Horizontal bar chart showing the percentage of reporting codes with a higher shoulder-month share under five specifications. Results range from 65.8 percent for the earlier 2021 to 2024 window to 50.0 percent when October is removed from both periods. The primary 2022 to 2025 result is 57.9 percent.
Source: National Sites Guide analysis of NPS Visitor Use Statistics 2025 · Chart: CC BY 4.0 Download PNG ↓
Methodology

How this was computed

Source dataset. We used NPS Visitor Use Statistics Data Package, 2025, specifically Main_Data.csv. The file covers monthly data through 2025. This analysis uses the NPS Total Recreation Visits (TRV) statistic only. Data.gov marks the source package as CC0 1.0.

Windows compared. The baseline is 2012 through 2015. The comparison window is 2022 through 2025. We pool the complete years available within each window, then calculate each period's monthly shares from the pooled TRV totals.

Month definitions. This study uses "shoulder season" as shorthand for April, May, September, and October. That fixed definition does not fit every climate or travel market. Peak months are June, July, and August. Each share divides visits in those months by all annual TRV in the same window.

Inclusion and weighting. A reporting code needs at least one complete 12-month year in each window. Its average annual TRV across complete baseline years must be at least 10,000. 354 codes qualify, and each has equal weight. Three have fewer than four complete baseline years. Sacramento National Historic Trail and Rosie the Riveter/World War II Home Front National Historical Park use 2013 to 2015. Waco Mammoth National Monument uses 2015.

Identity metadata. Visitor-statistics reporting codes do not always match public Parks API codes. Names, types, and states use the official NPS unit registry, IRMA Stats reporting labels, and the package's state file. Reporting areas without an official unit designation are labeled as reporting areas or reporting sites rather than assigned a park type.

Share versus count. A higher share does not always mean more visits. Of the 205 codes with a higher four-month share, 135 also recorded more average annual visits in those four months. The full CSV includes both measures.

2025 shutdown limitation. NPS reports a 43-day partial federal government shutdown in 2025. October is one of the four months in this analysis. The 2022 to 2024 sensitivity result is higher than the primary 2022 to 2025 result, but the data cannot tell us how much of that difference came from the shutdown.

Access-policy limitation. The table flags a limited reviewed set of timed-entry or vehicle-reservation programs adopted after the baseline: Acadia, Rocky Mountain, Glacier, Arches, and Mount Rainier. It is not a complete policy inventory. Yellowstone had no timed-entry program in either window.

Other limits. TRV counts visits, not unique people. Counting methods differ among reporting codes and sometimes change. Glacier Bay depends heavily on cruise schedules. Great Smoky Mountains includes substantial through-traffic. The figures describe recorded shares, not what caused them.

Reading the data

What this finding does, and doesn’t, tell us

The majority rests on the zero-change threshold. 205 codes recorded any increase in four-month share, while 154 rose by more than one point. The median change was +0.56 points.

Yellowstone is a large measured change. Its four-month share was 7.6 points higher, while its June-through-August share was 8.7 points lower. Yellowstone had no timed-entry program in either period. The visitation data does not identify the cause.

The selected examples are mixed. Badlands, Glacier, Grand Teton, Acadia, Mesa Verde, Olympic, Bryce Canyon, and Rocky Mountain each rose by at least 4.8 points. Mount Rainier's four-month share rose 1.7 points, but its summer share also rose 3.8 points. Arches and Shenandoah recorded small declines.

Figure

Yellowstone's June through August share was 8.7 points lower

Grouped bar chart comparing each month's share of annual recreation visits at Yellowstone in 2012 to 2015 and 2022 to 2025. The four shoulder months rose from a combined 30.9% to 38.5%. June, July, and August fell from 66.1% to 57.4%.
Source: National Sites Guide analysis of NPS Visitor Use Statistics 2025 · Chart: CC BY 4.0 Download PNG ↓
For attribution

Quotable sentences

These sentences are available to quote with attribution to Nicholas Major, National Sites Guide. The methodology and downloadable rows show how the figures were calculated from the official NPS data package. A link back to nationalsitesguide.com is appreciated when you publish online.

Pre-cleared for editorial use
“The latest NPS package shows 205 of 354 included reporting codes with a higher April, May, September, and October share. Of those, 135 also recorded more average annual visits in those months.”
Nicholas Major, National Sites Guide
“Yellowstone recorded a 38.5 percent April, May, September, and October share in 2022 through 2025. Its June through August share was 57.4 percent.”
Nicholas Major, National Sites Guide
“When 2025 or October is removed, the result changes. The data does not show that the shutdown caused the difference.”
Nicholas Major, National Sites Guide
For reporters

How to cite this analysis

If you reference these numbers in print, broadcast, or online, the following one-line citation is preferred:

Suggested citation National Sites Guide analysis of NPS Visitor Use Statistics Data Package, 2025, accessed August 31, 2026. nationalsitesguide.com/data/press/shoulder-season-shift/
Downloads

Data and chart files

National Sites Guide's original charts and analysis are released under CC BY 4.0; please credit National Sites Guide when republishing. The underlying NPS source files retain their source terms.

About the analyst

Who did this work

Byline
Nicholas Major

Nicholas Major is an independent software engineer who has built data pipelines since 2011. National Sites Guide is his data-publishing project. It turns official NPS visitation data into trip-planning research. He is not affiliated with the National Park Service. The full summary distribution and raw monthly TRV rows are available so data desks can check the result. Reach him through the contact form or on LinkedIn.

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Independence

Independent site. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the National Park Service. The underlying data comes from the official NPS Visitor Use Statistics Data Package, 2025 release; editorial analysis and methodology are ours. The NPS Arrowhead and other NPS marks are not used.

Last updated · 2026-08-31